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ارزش‌گذاری رفتاری سهام با استفاده از گروه‌بندی سه‌بعدی | ||
| راهبرد مدیریت مالی | ||
| مقاله 1، دوره 5، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 17، شهریور 1396، صفحه 1-26 اصل مقاله (1.27 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22051/jfm.2017.13177.1224 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| غلامرضا عسکرزاده1؛ مریم خلیلی عراقی* 2؛ هاشم نیکومرام3؛ فریدون رهنمای رودپشتی4 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری رشته مدیریت مالی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2استادیار دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد- واحد علوم وتحقیقات تهران،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ،تهران، ایران | ||
| 3استاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد- واحد علوم وتحقیقات تهران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ،تهران،ایران | ||
| 4استاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد- واحد علوم وتحقیقات تهران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| هدف این پژوهش آزمون روش ارزش‌گذاری است که در آن علاوه بر توجه به ویژگی‌های بنیادی سهام، به احساسات و تأثیر آن در قیمت‌گذاری سهام توجه کند. در راستای انجام این پژوهش، اطلاعات بنیادی و قیمت سهام 95 شرکت از شرکت‌های تولیدی و صنعتی پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی سال‌های 1388 تا 1392 جمع‌آوری و در ارزش‌گذاری با استفاده از مدل رفتاری تصویر سهام و مدل‌های سنتی (سود باقیمانده، تنزیل سود نقدی و جریان نقدی آزاد) بکار گرفته‌شده‌اند. این پژوهش با به‌کارگیری داده‌های تابلویی و تدوین روابط رگرسیونی هر مدل، عملکرد مدل‌ها را بر مبنای شاخص آکاییک (معیاری جهت سنجش عدم اطمینان مدل) هر مدل مورد مقایسه قرار داده است. نتایج مدل رفتاری ارائه‌شده در مقایسه با مدل‌های سنتی ارزش‌گذاری سهام، حاکی از عدم اطمینان کمتر این مدل بوده و به عبارتی از قابلیت اطمینان بیشتری در امر ارزش‌گذاری سهام برخوردار است. مدل ارائه‌شده می‌تواند نقش عامل ادراک و احساسات در قیمت‌گذاری سهام را تبیین کرده و درزمینه مدیریت فعال‌تر پرتفوی سرمایه‌گذاران مؤثر واقع شود. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| ارزش گذاری؛ مالی رفتاری؛ تصویر سهام؛ سود باقیمانده؛ جریانات نقدی آزاد سهامداران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Behavioral Stock Valuation Using 3d Grouping | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Gholamreza Askarzade1؛ Maryam Khalili Araghi2؛ Hashem Nikomaram3؛ Fereyoon Rahnama Rodposhti4 | ||
| 1islamic azad university of tehran | ||
| 2islamic azad university of tehran | ||
| 3islamic azad university of tehran | ||
| 4islamic azad university of tehran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| The aim of this study is to test the valuation method in which in addition to the fundamental features of the stock, pay attention to investor sentiment and its impact on stock pricing. in this regard ,Fundamental information and stock prices of 95 manufacturing and industrial companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2009 to 2013 are collected and valued using the behavioral model stock image and traditional models (residual income, discount dividend and free cash flow) .This research using panel data and regression equations developed for each model, has compared the performance of models based on Akaike(ACI) index. The results of the proposed model compared to traditional models implies less uncertainty of this model .The proposed behavioral model can explain the role of behavioral factors in stock pricing and helpful for stockholders in the active portfolio management because they can buy or sell their securities based on this model JEL classification codes: G12 | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Valuation, Behavioral Finance, Stock Image, Residual Income, Free Cash Flow to Equity | ||
| مراجع | ||
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