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فرزندآوری و ناپایداری خانواده: تأثیر فرزندان بر احتمال طلاق زنان در ایران | ||
| مطالعات اجتماعی روان شناختی زنان | ||
| دوره 22، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 80، آذر 1403، صفحه 39-64 اصل مقاله (631.46 K) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22051/jwsps.2024.46973.2871 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| داود شهپری ثانی* 1؛ محمد جلال عباسی شوازی2 | ||
| 1دانشجوی دکتری گروه جمعیتشناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. (نویسنده مسئول) dshahpari@ut.ac.ir | ||
| 2استاد گروه جمعیتشناسی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه تهران، محقق، مؤسسه جمعیتشناسی وین، اتریش، و استاد افتخاری دانشگاه ملی استرالیا، استرالیا mabbasi@ut.ac.ir | ||
| چکیده | ||
| در سال های اخیر، طلاق در ایران افزایش یافته و به عنوان یکی از مسائل اجتماعی مطرح است. عوامل و مشخصه های جمعیتی و اجتماعی متعددی بر روند افزایش طلاق مؤثر هستند که یکی از آن‌ها، عدم داشتن فرزند و همچنین تعداد فرزندان در خانواده است. مقاله پیش رو به طور خاص به نحوه تغییر احتمال طلاق زنان در ایران با داشتن فرزند و تعداد فرزندان در خانواده می‌پردازد. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل ثانویه داده‌های دو درصد سرشماری سال 1395 نشان داد که نداشتن فرزند و تعداد آن‌ها در خانواده های ایرانی، احتمال طلاق زنان را تحت تأثیر قرار می دهد. به‌طوری‌که داشتن فرزندان در خانواده احتمال طلاق زنان را کاهش می دهد و زنانی که در طول دوران ازدواج خود فرزند زنده ای به دنیا آورده اند در مقابل زنانی که هیچ گونه تولد زنده ای نداشته اند، احتمال طلاق آن‌ها کمتر است. همچنین افزایش تعداد فرزندان، اثر تثبیت‌کننده‌ای بر ثبات و پایداری خانواده و ازدواج دارد، به طوری که استحکام روابط زناشویی در خانواده های دارای سه فرزند و بیشتر نسبت به دیگر خانواده ها بیشتر است. این نتایج بیانگر اهمیت داشتن فرزند و تعداد آن‌ها در ثبات و پایداری روابط زناشویی در خانواده ی ایرانی است، بنابراین برنامه ریزی های جمعیتی کشور می توانند ضمن حمایت ازدواج و تشکیل خانواده، از طریق ارائه تسهیلات و حمایت‌های فرزندآوری پایداری و استحکام خانواده را تحکیم بخشند. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها | ||
| تغییرات جمعیتی؛ فرزندآوری؛ پایداری خانواده؛ ارزش فرزند؛ طلاق زنان | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Childbearing and Family Instability: The Impact of Children on Women's Divorce Probability in Iran | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Davoud Shahpari Sani1؛ Mohammad Jalal Abbasi Shavazi2 | ||
| 1Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. dshahpari@ut.ac.ir. (Corresponding Author) | ||
| 2Professor of Demography, University of Tehran, Iran; Academy Fellow, Vienna Institute of Demography, Austria; & Honorary Professor, Australian National University, Australia. mabbasi@ut.ac.ir | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| In recent years, the incidence of divorce in Iran has risen significantly, making it a pressing social concern. Various demographic and social factors contribute to this trend, with childbearing and the number of children in a family playing a crucial role. This study explores how the presence and number of children influence the likelihood of divorce among Iranian women. A secondary analysis of two-percent sample from the 2016 census data reveals that both childlessness and the number of children in a household significantly affect the probability of divorce among women. The findings indicate that having children reduces the likelihood of divorce, as women who have given birth during their marriage are less likely to divorce than those without children. Moreover, the study demonstrates that a higher number of children is associated with greater marital stability, with families having three or more children exhibiting higher levels of stability compared to others. The results underscore the critical role of childbearing in sustaining marital relationships in Iran. While supporting marriage and family formation, policymakers can enhance family stability by implementing policies and support systems that encourage childbearing. Keywords Population Changes, Childbearing, Family Stability, Value of Children, Women's Divorce Introduction The family, as the fundamental social institution, plays a pivotal role in human development and the fulfillment of essential needs (Azadarmaki & Bahar, 2006: 590-591). However, this dynamic institution undergoes continuous semantic, structural, and functional transformations. Over the past century, Iranian family structures and relationships have experienced significant changes (Abbasi-Shavazi, 2017: 55; Abbasi‐Shavazi et al., 2009: 1309; Mohammadpur et al., 2009: 311; Shahpari Sani et al., 2021: 5). One of the most critical social challenges arising from these transformations is the rising divorce rate (Abbasi‐Shavazi et al., 2009: 1310; Alimondegari et al., 2016: 63-65; Askari-Nodoushan et al., 2019: 2; Azadarmaki & Bahar, 2006: 591; Sadeghi, 2016: 190). Divorce has thus become a major societal concern. Among the factors influencing marital dissolution, childbearing and the number of children are key determinants (Alimondegari et al., 2016: 64; Sadeghi, 2018: 207). Given the cultural and social fabric of Iranian society and the socioeconomic consequences of divorce for women, this study investigates the extent to which childbearing and the number of children impact the probability of divorce among Iranian women. It addresses two key research questions: (1) Does having children influence the probability of divorce among women? (2) If so, how does the number of children affect this probability? Theoretical Framework Various theoretical perspectives offer insights into the relationship between childbearing and marital stability. Household economics theory (Becker et al, 1977: 1146; Kaplan et al, 2020: 127), sociological approaches (Waite & Lillard, 1991: 937), and social psychology perspectives (Kaplan et al, 2020: 127) argue that children contribute to marital stability. Conversely, alternative models, such as the role conflict model (Kaplan et al, 2020: 126-127; Twenge, 2003: 576), freedom restriction model (Garvin, 1997: 128), and financial cost model (Twenge, 2003: 576-578), posit that childbearing may contribute to marital dissolution by imposing additional burdens on couples. This study integrates these theoretical perspectives to analyze the research problem. Methods This study employs a descriptive-analytical approach, utilizing secondary data analysis from the 2016 Iranian census (2% sample). The dataset comprises household and individual records, with the individual file containing 1,579,435 cases, of which 783,060 (49.5%) are women. Based on marital status information, the final sample includes only married (coded as 0) and divorced (coded as 1) women. The total sample consists of 436,551 women, comprising422, 363 married women and 14,188 divorced women. The study applies the Chi-square test for bivariate analysis and logistic regression for multivariate analysis. Findings and discussion The results reveal that childbearing and the number of children significantly impact the probability of divorce among Iranian women. Women who have given birth during their marriage are less likely to divorce than those without children. Moreover, a higher number of children contributes to greater marital stability with families having three or more children exhibiting the highest levels of stability. These findings align with household economics theory, sociological perspectives, and social psychology approaches, all of which emphasize the stabilizing role of children in marital relationships. The study concludes that in Iranian society, parental emotional attachment to children plays a crucial role in reducing divorce risk and strengthening marital bonds. Conclusion This study highlights the pivotal role of childbearing and the number of children in fostering marital stability among Iranian families. The findings underscore the need for policy measures that support childbearing as a means to strengthen family cohesion. Population policy planning should incorporate strategies that promote childbearing through economic incentives, housing support, and work-family balance policies, ensuring a more stable and resilient family structure. Funding This research and its associated publication costs were fully funded by the authors. No external financial support was received for this study. References Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J (2017). Iran’s Population Situation Analysis, National Institute of Population Research and UNFPA, Tehran. (Persian) Abbasi‐Shavazi, M. J., Morgan, S.P., Hosseini‐Chavoshi, M., & McDonald, P. (2009). Family change and continuity in Iran: Birth control use before first pregnancy. Journal of Marriage and Family, 71(5), 1309-1324. Aghajanian, A., & Thompson, V. (2013). Household size and structure in Iran: 1976-2006. The Open Family Studies Journal, 5(1), 1-9. Alimondegari, M., Ghazi Tabatabie, M., & Sadati, S.M.H. (2016). Examining a Theoretical-Conceptual Model of Tendency to Divorce among Couples in Tehran City. Population Policy Research, 2(1), 61-93. (Persian) Andersson, G. (1997). The impact of children on divorce risks of Swedish women. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, 13, 109-145. Askari-Nodoushan, A., Shams Ghahfarokhi, M., & Shams Ghahfarrokhi, F. (2019). An analysis of the socioeconomic characteristics of divorce in Iran. Strategic Research on Social Problems in Iran, 8(2), 1-16. (Persian) Azadarmaki, T., & Bahar, M. (2006). Families in Iran: Changes, challenges and future. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 37(4), 589-608. Bagi, M., & Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J. (2020). Household Dynamics in Iran: Study of Changes in Family and Household Structure over Four Decades. Journal of Population Association of Iran, 15(30), 203-230. doi:10.22034/jpai.2021.241891. (Persian) Becker, G. S., Landes, E. M., & Michael, R. T. (1977). An economic analysis of marital instability. Journal of Political Economy, 85(6), 1141-1187. Brines, J., & Joyner, K. (1999). The ties that bind: Principles of cohesion in cohabitation and marriage. American sociological review, 64(3), 333-355. Chiappori, P. A., Radchenko, N., & Salanié, B. (2018). Divorce and the duality of marital payoff. Review of Economics of the Household, 16, 833-858. Coombs, L. C., Freedman, R., Friedman, J., & Pratt, W. F. (1970). Premarital pregnancy and status before and after marriage. American Journal of Sociology, 75(5), 800-820. Coppola, L., & Di Cesare, M. (2008). How fertility and union stability interact in shaping new family patterns in Italy and Spain. Demographic Research, 18, 117-144. Durkheim, E. (1964). The Division of Labor in Society. New York: Free Press. Erlangsen, A., & Andersson, G. (2001). The impact of children on divorce risks in first and later marriages. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR Working Papers, WP-2001-033, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. Freedman, D. S., & Thornton, A. (1979). The long-term impact of pregnancy at marriage on the family's economic circumstances. Family Planning Perspectives, 11(1), 6-13, 18. Hart, R. K., Lyngstad, T. H., & Vinberg, E. (2017). Children and union dissolution across four decades: Evidence from Norway. European Sociological Review, 33(2), 317-331. Garvin, V. (1997). The Cultural Contradictions of Motherhood. Journal of Marriage and Family, 59(2), 492. Heaton, T. B. (1990). Marital stability throughout the child-rearing years. Demography, 27, 55-63. Hill, M. S. (1988). Marital stability and spouses' shared time: A multidisciplinary hypothesis. Journal of Family Issues, 9(4), 427-451. Jalovaara, M. (2013). Ressources socio-économiques et dissolution des cohabitations et des mariages. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, 29, 167-193. Jennings, E. A. (2016). Predictors of marital dissolution during a period of rapid social change: Evidence from South Asia. Demography, 53(5), 1351-1375. Kaplan, A., Endeweld, M., & Herbst-Debby, A. (2020). The more the merrier? The effect of children on divorce in a pronatalist society. Divorce in Europe: New Insights in Trends, Causes and Consequences of Relation Break-ups, 123-143. Lillard, L. A., & Waite, L. J. (1993). A joint model of marital childbearing and marital disruption. Demography, 30(4), 653-681. Lutz, W. (1991). Effects of children on divorce probabilities and of divorce on fertility: The case of Finland 1984 (IIASA Working Paper No. WP-91-035). International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Lutz, W., Wils, A. B., & Nieminen, M. (1991). The demographic dimensions of divorce: The case of Finland. Population Studies, 45(3), 437-453. Ma, L., Rizzi, E., & Turunen, J. (2019). Childlessness, sex composition of children, and divorce risks in China. Demographic Research, 41, 753-780. Mohammadpur, A., Rezaei, M., Partovi, L., & Sadeghi, R. (2009). The meaning reconstruction of family changes using grounded theory. Journal of Family Research, 5(3), 309-330. (Persian) Moltafet, H., Shahpari-Sani, D., Mohebi Meymand, M., & Hashemi, F. (2021). A Study of the dynamics of divorce in Iran in the period 2005-2015. Journal of Family Research, 16(4), 547-568. (Persian) Morgan, S. P., Lye, D. N., & Condran, G. A. (1988). Sons, daughters, and the risk of marital disruption. American Journal of Sociology, 94(1), 110-129. Murphy, M. J. (1985). Demographic and socio-economic influences on recent British marital breakdown patterns. Population Studies, 39(3), 441-460. Sadeghi, R. (2016). Socio-economic factors affecting Iranian youth divorce. Strategic Studies on Youth and Sports, 15(32), 189-205. (Persian) Sadeghi, R. (2018). Youth’s assessment of the consequences of divorce and its effects on tendency to divorce in Tehran City. Strategic Studies on Youth and Sports, 16(38), 205-222. (Persian) Shahpari Sani, D., Sadeghi, R., Hadadi, J., Khajenexad, R., Hosseini, M., & Mahmoudian, H. (2021). Analysis of the demographic, social and economic situation of female-headed households in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Women and Society, 12(47), 1-18. (Persian) Svarer, M., & Verner, M. (2008). Do children stabilize relationships in Denmark? Journal of Population Economics, 21, 395-417. Statistical center of Iran. Population-Housing Censuses (1996-2016). Tehran, Iran (Persian) Teachman, J. D. (1982). Methodological issues in the analysis of family formation and dissolution. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 1037-1053. Thornton, A. (1977). Children and marital stability. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 531-540. Torabi, F. Askari-Nodoushan., A. , and Alimondegari, M. (2017). Trends of marriage and family in Iran. In Abbasi-Shavazi et al., Iran’s Population Situation Analysis, National Institute of Population Research and UNFPA, Tehran. (Persian) Toulemon, L. (1995). The place of children in the history of couples. Population an English Selection, 163-186. Twenge, J. M., Campbell, W. K., & Foster, C. A. (2003). Parenthood and marital satisfaction: a meta‐analytic review. Journal of Marriage and Family, 65(3), 574-583. Vignoli, D., & Ferro, I. (2009). Rising marital disruption in Italy and its correlates. Demographic Research, 20, 11-36. Waite, L. J., & Lillard, L. A. (1991). Children and marital disruption. American Journal of Sociology, 96(4), 930-953. Xu, Q., Yu, J., & Qiu, Z. (2015). The impact of children on divorce risk. The Journal of Chinese Sociology, 2, 1-20. | ||
| کلیدواژه‌ها [English] | ||
| Population Changes, Childbearing, Family Stability, Value of Children, Women's Divorce | ||
| مراجع | ||
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(1396). تحولات و وضعیت جمعیت در جمهوری اسلامی ایران. موسسه مطالعات و مدیریت جامع و تخصصی جمعیت کشور، تهران، ایران. عسکریندوشن، عباس.، شمسقهفرخی، مهری و شمسقهفرخی، فریده. (1398). تحلیلی از مشخصههای اقتصادی ـ اجتماعی مرتبط با طلاق در ایران. پژوهشهای راهبردی مسائل اجتماعی، 8(2)، 16-1. علیمندگاری، ملیحه.، قاضی طباطبایی، محمود و ساداتی، سیدمحمدهانی. (1395). آزمون مدل نظری مفهومی تمایل زوجین به طلاق در شهر تهران. مطالعات جمعیتی، 2(1)، 93-61. محمدپور، احمد.، رضایی، مهدی.، پرتوی، لطیف و صادقی، رسول. (1388). بازسازی معنایی تغییرات خانواده به شیوه نظریه زمینه‌ای (مطالعه موردی: ایلات منگور و گورک). خانوادهپژوهی، 5(3)، 330-309. مرکز آمار ایران. سرشماری عمومی جمعیت و مسکن 1375-1395. ملتفت، حسین.، شهپریثانی، داود.، محبی، مهیار و هاشمی، فاطمه. (1399). پویایی طلاق در ایران با تأکید بر دوره 93-1383. خانواده پژوهی، 16(64)، 568-547. Abbasi-Shavazi, M.J (2017). Iran’s Population Situation Analysis, National Institute of Population Research and UNFPA, Tehran. (Persian) Abbasi‐Shavazi, M. J., Morgan, S.P., Hosseini‐Chavoshi, M., & McDonald, P. (2009). Family change and continuity in Iran: Birth control use before first pregnancy. Journal of Marriage and Family, 71(5), 1309-1324. Aghajanian, A., & Thompson, V. (2013). Household size and structure in Iran: 1976-2006. The Open Family Studies Journal, 5(1), 1-9. Alimondegari, M., Ghazi Tabatabie, M., & Sadati, S.M.H. (2016). Examining a Theoretical-Conceptual Model of Tendency to Divorce among Couples in Tehran City. Population Policy Research, 2(1), 61-93. (Persian) Andersson, G. (1997). The impact of children on divorce risks of Swedish women. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, 13, 109-145. Askari-Nodoushan, A., Shams Ghahfarokhi, M., & Shams Ghahfarrokhi, F. (2019). An analysis of the socioeconomic characteristics of divorce in Iran. Strategic Research on Social Problems in Iran, 8(2), 1-16. (Persian) Azadarmaki, T., & Bahar, M. (2006). Families in Iran: Changes, challenges and future. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 37(4), 589-608. Bagi, M., & Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J. (2020). Household Dynamics in Iran: Study of Changes in Family and Household Structure over Four Decades. Journal of Population Association of Iran, 15(30), 203-230. doi:10.22034/jpai.2021.241891. (Persian) Becker, G. S., Landes, E. M., & Michael, R. T. (1977). An economic analysis of marital instability. Journal of Political Economy, 85(6), 1141-1187. Brines, J., & Joyner, K. (1999). The ties that bind: Principles of cohesion in cohabitation and marriage. American sociological review, 64(3), 333-355. Chiappori, P. A., Radchenko, N., & Salanié, B. (2018). Divorce and the duality of marital payoff. Review of Economics of the Household, 16, 833-858. Coombs, L. C., Freedman, R., Friedman, J., & Pratt, W. F. (1970). Premarital pregnancy and status before and after marriage. American Journal of Sociology, 75(5), 800-820. Coppola, L., & Di Cesare, M. (2008). How fertility and union stability interact in shaping new family patterns in Italy and Spain. Demographic Research, 18, 117-144. Durkheim, E. (1964). The Division of Labor in Society. New York: Free Press. Erlangsen, A., & Andersson, G. (2001). The impact of children on divorce risks in first and later marriages. Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR Working Papers, WP-2001-033, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. Freedman, D. S., & Thornton, A. (1979). The long-term impact of pregnancy at marriage on the family's economic circumstances. Family Planning Perspectives, 11(1), 6-13, 18. Hart, R. K., Lyngstad, T. H., & Vinberg, E. (2017). Children and union dissolution across four decades: Evidence from Norway. European Sociological Review, 33(2), 317-331. Garvin, V. (1997). The Cultural Contradictions of Motherhood. Journal of Marriage and Family, 59(2), 492. Heaton, T. B. (1990). Marital stability throughout the child-rearing years. Demography, 27, 55-63. Hill, M. S. (1988). Marital stability and spouses' shared time: A multidisciplinary hypothesis. Journal of Family Issues, 9(4), 427-451. Jalovaara, M. (2013). Ressources socio-économiques et dissolution des cohabitations et des mariages. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, 29, 167-193. Jennings, E. A. (2016). Predictors of marital dissolution during a period of rapid social change: Evidence from South Asia. Demography, 53(5), 1351-1375. Kaplan, A., Endeweld, M., & Herbst-Debby, A. (2020). The more the merrier? The effect of children on divorce in a pronatalist society. Divorce in Europe: New Insights in Trends, Causes and Consequences of Relation Break-ups, 123-143. Lillard, L. A., & Waite, L. J. (1993). A joint model of marital childbearing and marital disruption. Demography, 30(4), 653-681. Lutz, W. (1991). 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